According to the India Meteorological Department, Pune, the south west monsoon will still take at least five days to withdraw. The withdrawal of the monsoon has already been delayed by a week. Generally, the process of the withdrawal of the monsoon winds starts from the west Rajasthan by September 1.

But this year, owing to the absence of the conditions causing the withdrawal of the winds, monsoons still stay in, feel the weather officials.

In a press conference on Tuesday, Miss Medha Khole, director of the weather forecasting department, IMD, said, “A good rainfall is taking place in several parts of the country at present. As a result, it is not possible to forecast its withdrawal”.

Normally monsoon takes one and a half month’s span for the complete retraction. So if the withdrawal starts by September 1st, monsoon leaves the country around October 1st. For Pune and the areas surrounding the city, the date of the departure of monsoon winds is around October 1st.

Miss Khole also said, “We need a dry spell for at least five days so that we could announce the monsoon’s withdrawal. However heavy rains are still taking place in many parts of the country and no dry spells are prevalent anywhere. Among the other factors required for the announcement of the withdrawal of the monsoon, formation of the anti cyclone system and considerable reduction in the moisture content are important.”

As for the possibility of a long dry spell, Khole said, “We don’t think there’s any such possibility in the next four to five days”.

According to the weather experts, a late withdrawal extends the span of the monsoon season. Even last year, the withdrawal process of the monsoon winds had begun in the last week of September. In 2008, too, the situation was similar to this.

Mr. A B Mazumdar, deputy director general, meteorology, IMD said in the press conference, “”We have a longer monsoon season if the withdrawal is delayed. But it is not necessary that the delay will result in a major increase in overall rainfall activity in the country”.

According to him, the north-west part of the country from where the monsoon begins its withdrawal, has already received ample rainfall this time. Naturally, the increase in the monsoon level will definitely affect the area. “Sometimes, even after withdrawal of the monsoon, rainfall takes place in these areas due to local conditions and western disturbances,” he added.

The IMD officials stated that monsoon spread all over the country 10 days ahead of its usual time this year. It ensured its presence at the Bay of Bengal three days ahead of its normal time and reached Kerala and Mumbai on May 31st and June 11th respectively. Though the winds took the north eastern states into their fold a bit earlier than usual, it arrived in Kolkata on June 13 which is a week later than the normal.

In short, the monsoon magic continues to cast a spell on the country for some more days.

- Yogesh Sapre